Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Both writes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
